Bielefeld
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Magdeburg
32%
Fair odds 3.08
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bielefeld | Draw | Magdeburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 24% | 32% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Magdeburg
Magdeburg are rated 22 points above Bielefeld (1374 to 1352), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bielefeld
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bielefeld's chance of winning and takes the same from Magdeburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bielefeld
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Bielefeld score 1.1 a match against an average side (7th in 2. Bundesliga); Magdeburg concede 1.7 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bielefeld WLWWD, gained 17 rating points; Magdeburg DWLWD, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bielefeld
Bielefeld won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BielefeldMagdeburgBielefeld
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/30
Magdeburg
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bielefeld | Draw | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld | 27%3.76 | 5%18.94 | 2%42.02 |
| Level | 14%7.01 | 13%7.78 | 11%8.80 |
| Magdeburg | 3%34.60 | 5%19.12 | 19%5.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Bielefeld wins1Magdeburg wins- W Magdeburg vs Bielefeld 0-2
- W Bielefeld vs Magdeburg 2-0
- L Magdeburg vs Bielefeld 4-0
- W Bielefeld vs Magdeburg 3-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bielefeld's side.