Augsburg
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13
Mainz
29%
Fair odds 3.45
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Augsburg | Draw | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mainz
Mainz are rated 15 points above Augsburg (1497 to 1482), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Augsburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Augsburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Mainz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Augsburg
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Augsburg score 1.4 a match against an average side (10th in Bundesliga); Mainz concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Augsburg LDLDL, lost 18 rating points; Mainz LLWLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Mainz
Augsburg won 2, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AugsburgMainzAugsburg
9/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Mainz
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Augsburg | Draw | Mainz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 28%3.60 | 5%21.41 | 2%54.64 |
| Level | 16%6.20 | 13%7.75 | 10%10.20 |
| Mainz | 3%29.15 | 6%17.73 | 18%5.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Augsburg wins7Mainz wins- L Mainz vs Augsburg 2-0
- L Augsburg vs Mainz 1-4
- D Mainz vs Augsburg 0-0
- L Augsburg vs Mainz 2-3
- L Mainz vs Augsburg 1-0
- W Augsburg vs Mainz 2-1
- L Mainz vs Augsburg 3-1
- L Augsburg vs Mainz 1-2
- W Augsburg vs Mainz 2-1
- L Mainz vs Augsburg 4-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Augsburg's side.