Osasuna
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Malaga
23%
Fair odds 4.36
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Osasuna | Draw | Malaga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Osasuna
Osasuna are rated 45 points above Malaga (1439 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Osasuna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Osasuna's chance of winning and takes the same from Malaga's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Osasuna
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Osasuna score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in La Liga); Malaga concede 1.6 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Osasuna LLWLD, lost 13 rating points; Malaga LDLDL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OsasunaMalagaOsasuna
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/27
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/26
11/02
Malaga
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Osasuna | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 34%2.92 | 5%18.80 | 2%53.76 |
| Level | 17%6.04 | 14%7.16 | 10%10.42 |
| Malaga | 2%41.49 | 4%23.98 | 12%8.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.