Tenerife
29%
Fair odds 3.41
Mallorca
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tenerife | Draw | Mallorca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mallorca
Mallorca are rated 143 points above Tenerife (1474 to 1330), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tenerife
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Tenerife's chance of winning and takes the same from Mallorca's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mallorca
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.2. Tenerife score 0.8 a match against an average side (24th in La Liga 2); Mallorca concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Tenerife DDDLD, barely moved; Mallorca WDDWD, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
TenerifeMallorcaTenerife
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/13
09/19
09/26
10/05
10/12
10/25
Mallorca
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
5 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tenerife | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 17%6.02 | 5%21.88 | 2%57.80 |
| Level | 12%8.45 | 20%5.11 | 15%6.57 |
| Mallorca | 1%70.42 | 5%21.10 | 24%4.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.