Goteborg
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47Bookmakers 40%
Malmo FF
32%
Fair odds 3.12Bookmakers 34%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Goteborg | Draw | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Malmo FF
Malmo FF are rated 13 points above Goteborg (1394 to 1381), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Goteborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Goteborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Malmo FF's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Goteborg
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Goteborg score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Allsvenskan); Malmo FF concede 1.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Goteborg LDDDW, gained 5 rating points; Malmo FF LWDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Goteborg 40%, Malmo FF 34%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Malmo FF
Goteborg won 3, drew 2 and lost 6 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GoteborgMalmo FFGoteborg
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Malmo FF
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
9 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Goteborg | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg | 28%3.57 | 6%17.70 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 12%8.67 | 16%6.12 | 11%8.90 |
| Malmo FF | 2%65.79 | 4%22.73 | 19%5.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Goteborg wins6Malmo FF wins- L Malmo FF vs Goteborg 4-0
- D Malmo FF vs Goteborg 0-0
- W Goteborg vs Malmo FF 1-0
- L Malmo FF vs Goteborg 2-1
- L Goteborg vs Malmo FF 0-3
- D Malmo FF vs Goteborg 2-2
- L Goteborg vs Malmo FF 0-1
- W Goteborg vs Malmo FF 2-1
- L Malmo FF vs Goteborg 1-0
- L Goteborg vs Malmo FF 0-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Goteborg's side.