Mjallby
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.79
Malmo FF
35%
Fair odds 2.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mjallby | Draw | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Mjallby and Malmo FF are rated almost level (1387 and 1394).
-
Home advantage Favours Mjallby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mjallby's chance of winning and takes the same from Malmo FF's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.2. Mjallby score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in Allsvenskan); Malmo FF concede 1.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mjallby WDWLD, barely moved; Malmo FF LWDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Mjallby
Mjallby won 6, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MjallbyMalmo FFMjallby
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Malmo FF
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
9 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mjallby | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby | 27%3.69 | 6%15.77 | 2%48.31 |
| Level | 8%11.92 | 18%5.51 | 13%7.95 |
| Malmo FF | 1%— | 3%29.15 | 21%4.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Mjallby wins3Malmo FF wins- W Malmo FF vs Mjallby 2-3
- W Malmo FF vs Mjallby 1-3
- D Mjallby vs Malmo FF 1-1
- L Malmo FF vs Mjallby 2-0
- W Mjallby vs Malmo FF 2-1
- W Mjallby vs Malmo FF 1-0
- W Malmo FF vs Mjallby 1-2
- D Mjallby vs Malmo FF 1-1
- L Malmo FF vs Mjallby 2-0
- W Malmo FF vs Mjallby 0-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mjallby's side.