Nott'm Forest
28%
Fair odds 3.60Bookmakers 21%
Man City
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16Bookmakers 56%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Man City: 46% here, 56% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nott'm Forest | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Best price on offer | 4.90 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
Team news
- Nicolo Savona Out
- Nicolas Dominguez Out
- Igor Jesus Doubtful
Sources conflict on Dominguez (doubt vs out) and Jesus (out until after international break vs trained fully and could be involved); the most recent reports list Dominguez as out and Jesus as a doubt. Forest have won only one league game this season and are without a league win in five.
- Antoine Semenyo Out
No suspended players for City. Manager Maresca reportedly has an otherwise fully available squad; Daniel Munoz was reported managing a foot issue but is not listed as absent.
Allowing for this news: Nott'm Forest 28%, draw 26%, Man City 46% (xG 1.18 – 1.59). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, mancitysquare.com, dave.sport, onefootball.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Man City
Man City are rated 150 points above Nott'm Forest (1710 to 1561), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nott'm Forest
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Nott'm Forest's chance of winning and takes the same from Man City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Man City
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Nott'm Forest score 1.4 a match against an average side (14th in Premier League); Man City concede 0.8 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Man City
Nott'm Forest LDLLL, lost 31 rating points; Man City WLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Nott'm Forest
Man City will have had 3 days' rest, Nott'm Forest 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Man City
Bookmakers rate Man City higher than the model does: Nott'm Forest 21% against the model's 28%, Man City 56% against 46%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Man City
Nott'm Forest won 1, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Nott'm ForestMan CityNott'm Forest
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
13 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Man City
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nott'm Forest | Draw | Man City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest | 16%6.18 | 5%18.66 | 3%32.68 |
| Level | 10%9.55 | 15%6.71 | 17%5.72 |
| Man City | 2%60.98 | 5%22.03 | 26%3.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Nott'm Forest wins5Man City wins- D Man City vs Nott'm Forest 2-2
- L Nott'm Forest vs Man City 1-2
- W Nott'm Forest vs Man City 1-0
- L Man City vs Nott'm Forest 3-0
- L Nott'm Forest vs Man City 0-2
- L Man City vs Nott'm Forest 2-0
- D Nott'm Forest vs Man City 1-1
- L Man City vs Nott'm Forest 6-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nott'm Forest's side.