Liverpool
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Man United
22%
Fair odds 4.61
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Liverpool | Draw | Man United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Liverpool
Liverpool are rated 66 points above Man United (1646 to 1579), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Liverpool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Liverpool's chance of winning and takes the same from Man United's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Liverpool
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.2. Liverpool score 1.9 a match against an average side (4th in Premier League); Man United concede 1.1 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Liverpool
Liverpool LLWWW, gained 7 rating points; Man United WLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Liverpool won 4, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LiverpoolMan UnitedLiverpool
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/25
11/01
11/04
Man United
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Liverpool | Draw | Man United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 29%3.42 | 4%28.01 | 1%77.52 |
| Level | 22%4.48 | 12%8.56 | 8%12.85 |
| Man United | 5%18.87 | 6%17.15 | 13%7.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Liverpool wins3Man United wins- L Man United vs Liverpool 3-2
- L Liverpool vs Man United 1-2
- D Liverpool vs Man United 2-2
- W Man United vs Liverpool 0-3
- D Man United vs Liverpool 2-2
- D Liverpool vs Man United 0-0
- W Liverpool vs Man United 7-0
- L Man United vs Liverpool 2-1
- W Liverpool vs Man United 4-0
- W Man United vs Liverpool 0-5
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Liverpool's side.