Sp Lisbon
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.74
Man United
21%
Fair odds 4.71
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Lisbon | Draw | Man United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 21% | 21% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon are rated 117 points above Man United (1696 to 1579), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sp Lisbon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sp Lisbon's chance of winning and takes the same from Man United's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Lisbon
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.3. Sp Lisbon score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Primeira Liga); Man United concede 1.1 (14th best defence in Premier League).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon WWLLW, lost 9 rating points; Man United WLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sp LisbonMan UnitedSp Lisbon
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Man United
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Lisbon | Draw | Man United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 37%2.73 | 5%18.55 | 2%41.84 |
| Level | 18%5.51 | 11%8.87 | 9%10.63 |
| Man United | 3%32.36 | 4%26.18 | 10%10.17 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.