Stevenage
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.24
Mansfield
27%
Fair odds 3.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stevenage | Draw | Mansfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Stevenage and Mansfield are rated almost level (1365 and 1369).
-
Home advantage Favours Stevenage
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stevenage's chance of winning and takes the same from Mansfield's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stevenage
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.0. Stevenage score 0.8 a match against an average side (18th in League One); Mansfield concede 1.6 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Stevenage DLWLW, barely moved; Mansfield DLWWD, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Mansfield
Stevenage won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StevenageMansfieldStevenage
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Mansfield
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stevenage | Draw | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 27%3.72 | 5%20.58 | 1%67.11 |
| Level | 16%6.08 | 18%5.46 | 11%8.90 |
| Mansfield | 2%51.55 | 4%22.52 | 14%6.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Stevenage wins3Mansfield wins- D Stevenage vs Mansfield 1-1
- D Mansfield vs Stevenage 1-1
- D Stevenage vs Mansfield 1-1
- W Mansfield vs Stevenage 0-1
- L Mansfield vs Stevenage 1-0
- D Stevenage vs Mansfield 0-0
- L Mansfield vs Stevenage 2-0
- L Stevenage vs Mansfield 1-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stevenage's side.