Avellino
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49
Mantova
33%
Fair odds 3.00
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Avellino | Draw | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Avellino and Mantova are rated almost level (1357 and 1366).
-
Home advantage Favours Avellino
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Avellino's chance of winning and takes the same from Mantova's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Avellino score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Serie B); Mantova concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Avellino WDLDW, gained 13 rating points; Mantova DLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AvellinoMantovaAvellino
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
11/01
Mantova
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Avellino | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino | 24%4.18 | 5%19.23 | 2%45.87 |
| Level | 14%6.93 | 15%6.59 | 13%7.92 |
| Mantova | 2%42.19 | 5%19.92 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Avellino wins0Mantova wins- W Mantova vs Avellino 0-2
- D Avellino vs Mantova 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Avellino's side.