Estoril
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00Bookmakers 45%
Maritimo
25%
Fair odds 3.93Bookmakers 28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Estoril | Draw | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Estoril
Estoril are rated 28 points above Maritimo (1422 to 1395), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Estoril
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Estoril's chance of winning and takes the same from Maritimo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Estoril
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Estoril score 1.1 a match against an average side (12th in Primeira Liga); Maritimo concede 1.6 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Estoril LLLLL, lost 34 rating points; Maritimo LLLDL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Maritimo
Bookmakers rate Maritimo higher than the model does: Estoril 45% against the model's 50%, Maritimo 28% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Estoril won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EstorilMaritimoEstoril
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/22
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/25
10/31
Maritimo
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/10
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Estoril | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 30%3.33 | 5%20.88 | 2%57.47 |
| Level | 17%5.75 | 14%7.21 | 10%10.24 |
| Maritimo | 3%32.79 | 5%20.04 | 14%6.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Estoril wins1Maritimo wins- W Estoril vs Maritimo 3-1
- L Maritimo vs Estoril 1-0
- D Maritimo vs Estoril 0-0
- W Estoril vs Maritimo 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Estoril's side.