Lens
37%
Fair odds 2.67Bookmakers 43%
Marseille
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lens | Draw | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 24% | 38% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.90 | 3.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Lens and Marseille are rated almost level (1552 and 1551).
-
Home advantage Favours Lens
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lens's chance of winning and takes the same from Marseille's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Lens score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Ligue 1); Marseille concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Marseille
Lens LLWLW, lost 24 rating points; Marseille WWWLW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lens
Bookmakers rate Lens higher than the model does: Lens 43% against the model's 37%, Marseille 32% against 38%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Lens
Lens won 6, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LensMarseilleLens
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/30
11/04
Marseille
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lens | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 24%4.11 | 7%14.93 | 4%24.39 |
| Level | 12%8.59 | 13%7.84 | 16%6.37 |
| Marseille | 2%52.91 | 4%25.19 | 19%5.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Lens wins4Marseille wins- L Marseille vs Lens 3-1
- W Lens vs Marseille 2-1
- W Marseille vs Lens 0-1
- L Lens vs Marseille 1-3
- L Marseille vs Lens 2-1
- W Lens vs Marseille 1-0
- W Lens vs Marseille 2-1
- W Marseille vs Lens 0-1
- L Lens vs Marseille 0-2
- W Marseille vs Lens 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lens's side.