Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10Bookmakers 41%
Mechelen
27%
Fair odds 3.75Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | Mechelen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
Team news
- Birger Verstraete Out
- Thibaud Verlinden Out
- Manuel Osifo Out
- Takuya Ogiwara Doubtful
Whoscored's preview says Thibault Vlietinck is expected to replace Ogiwara if he is out; the statz.ai prediction still has Ogiwara starting.
- Keano Vanrafelghem Out
- Tommy St. Jago Out
- Adeshina Ayodele Out
- Leo Hjelde Out
Two other previews list Halil Özdemir and Tijn Van Ingelgom as out, but the match-specific preview does not, so I left them off; positions for Vanrafelghem and Hjelde are not confirmed in the sources.
Allowing for this news: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 48%, draw 26%, Mechelen 27% (xG 1.64 – 1.17). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: whoscored.com, whoscored.com, sportsdunia.com, besoccer.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mechelen
Mechelen are rated 29 points above Oud-Heverlee Leuven (1470 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Oud-Heverlee Leuven's chance of winning and takes the same from Mechelen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Oud-Heverlee Leuven score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Belgian Pro League); Mechelen concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oud-Heverlee Leuven WDDWD, gained 27 rating points; Mechelen WWWDL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Mechelen will have had 3 days' rest, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Mechelen
Bookmakers rate Mechelen higher than the model does: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 41% against the model's 48%, Mechelen 32% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Oud-Heverlee Leuven won 5, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenMechelenOud-Heverlee Leuven
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Mechelen
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/11
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 30%3.39 | 5%19.80 | 2%56.50 |
| Level | 16%6.21 | 15%6.72 | 10%9.69 |
| Mechelen | 3%39.53 | 5%20.83 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Oud-Heverlee Leuven wins5Mechelen wins- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen 2-2
- D Mechelen vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1-1
- L Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen 1-2
- D Mechelen vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1-1
- W Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen 1-0
- L Mechelen vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 5-0
- L Mechelen vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3-0
- L Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen 2-3
- W Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen 1-0
- W Mechelen vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1-2
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oud-Heverlee Leuven's side.