Montpellier
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95Bookmakers 48%
Metz
24%
Fair odds 4.16Bookmakers 25%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Montpellier | Draw | Metz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Best price on offer | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Montpellier
Montpellier are rated 60 points above Metz (1437 to 1377), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Montpellier
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Montpellier's chance of winning and takes the same from Metz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Montpellier
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Montpellier score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in Ligue 2); Metz concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Montpellier
Montpellier WWWWD, gained 47 rating points; Metz LDWLD, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Metz
Bookmakers rate Metz higher than the model does: Montpellier 48% against the model's 51%, Metz 25% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Montpellier
Montpellier won 3, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MontpellierMetzMontpellier
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
5 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/19
10/26
10/31
Metz
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Montpellier | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 27%3.68 | 4%28.49 | 1%96.15 |
| Level | 20%4.91 | 14%7.18 | 8%12.67 |
| Metz | 4%23.26 | 6%15.92 | 16%6.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Montpellier wins0Metz wins- W Montpellier vs Metz 3-0
- W Metz vs Montpellier 0-1
- D Montpellier vs Metz 2-2
- W Metz vs Montpellier 1-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Montpellier's side.