Southampton
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.41
Middlesbrough
34%
Fair odds 2.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Southampton | Draw | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southampton
Southampton are rated 25 points above Middlesbrough (1571 to 1546), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Southampton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Southampton's chance of winning and takes the same from Middlesbrough's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southampton
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Southampton score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Championship); Middlesbrough concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Southampton DWWDW, gained 17 rating points; Middlesbrough LWWDW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Middlesbrough
Southampton won 0, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SouthamptonMiddlesbroughSouthampton
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Middlesbrough
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Southampton | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 24%4.16 | 5%20.00 | 2%43.48 |
| Level | 15%6.71 | 13%7.50 | 12%8.35 |
| Middlesbrough | 3%32.79 | 5%18.32 | 20%5.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Southampton wins2Middlesbrough wins- L Middlesbrough vs Southampton 4-0
- D Southampton vs Middlesbrough 1-1
- D Southampton vs Middlesbrough 1-1
- L Middlesbrough vs Southampton 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Southampton's side.