Brondby
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Midtjylland
32%
Fair odds 3.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brondby | Draw | Midtjylland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Midtjylland
Midtjylland are rated 109 points above Brondby (1506 to 1397), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brondby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brondby's chance of winning and takes the same from Midtjylland's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brondby
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.4. Brondby score 1.0 a match against an average side (4th in Danish Superliga); Midtjylland concede 1.7 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brondby
Brondby WWLWL, gained 15 rating points; Midtjylland LWWLW, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Brondby
Brondby won 10, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrondbyMidtjyllandBrondby
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
19 conceded
08/17
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
11/01
Midtjylland
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brondby | Draw | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby | 27%3.65 | 6%17.76 | 2%40.00 |
| Level | 14%7.26 | 13%7.42 | 12%8.43 |
| Midtjylland | 2%40.82 | 5%20.83 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
10Brondby wins7Midtjylland wins- L Midtjylland vs Brondby 4-1
- W Midtjylland vs Brondby 2-3
- L Brondby vs Midtjylland 1-2
- D Midtjylland vs Brondby 0-0
- L Brondby vs Midtjylland 1-3
- L Brondby vs Midtjylland 1-2
- W Midtjylland vs Brondby 0-2
- W Midtjylland vs Brondby 1-5
- W Brondby vs Midtjylland 2-0
- L Midtjylland vs Brondby 3-2
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brondby's side.