Genoa
35%
Fair odds 2.83Bookmakers 21%
Milan
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70Bookmakers 52%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Genoa: 35% here, 21% with bookmakers; Milan: 37% here, 52% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Genoa | Draw | Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Best price on offer | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.84 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Milan
Milan are rated 102 points above Genoa (1575 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Genoa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Genoa's chance of winning and takes the same from Milan's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Genoa score 1.1 a match against an average side (18th in Serie A); Milan concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Genoa
Genoa WWWLW, gained 30 rating points; Milan LWLWL, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Genoa
Milan will have had 3 days' rest, Genoa 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Milan
Bookmakers rate Milan higher than the model does: Genoa 21% against the model's 35%, Milan 52% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Milan
Genoa won 0, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GenoaMilanGenoa
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Milan
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 46%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Genoa | Draw | Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 20%4.93 | 5%20.79 | 2%52.36 |
| Level | 13%7.45 | 17%6.04 | 13%7.52 |
| Milan | 2%47.62 | 5%19.05 | 22%4.47 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Genoa wins5Milan wins- L Genoa vs Milan 1-2
- D Milan vs Genoa 1-1
- L Genoa vs Milan 1-2
- D Milan vs Genoa 0-0
- D Milan vs Genoa 3-3
- L Genoa vs Milan 0-1
- L Milan vs Genoa 2-0
- L Genoa vs Milan 0-3
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Genoa's side.