Stoke
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.59
Millwall
34%
Fair odds 2.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stoke | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Millwall
Millwall are rated 39 points above Stoke (1496 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stoke
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stoke's chance of winning and takes the same from Millwall's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Stoke score 1.1 a match against an average side (18th in Championship); Millwall concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Stoke
Stoke WWDWL, gained 16 rating points; Millwall LWLDL, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Millwall
Stoke won 1, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StokeMillwallStoke
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Millwall
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stoke | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 23%4.35 | 5%19.05 | 2%47.85 |
| Level | 14%7.07 | 17%5.95 | 13%7.45 |
| Millwall | 2%51.02 | 5%21.28 | 19%5.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Stoke wins7Millwall wins- L Stoke vs Millwall 1-3
- L Millwall vs Stoke 2-0
- L Millwall vs Stoke 1-0
- D Stoke vs Millwall 1-1
- D Stoke vs Millwall 0-0
- L Millwall vs Stoke 1-0
- L Stoke vs Millwall 0-1
- L Millwall vs Stoke 2-0
- W Stoke vs Millwall 2-0
- L Millwall vs Stoke 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stoke's side.