West Brom
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22Bookmakers 47%
Millwall
27%
Fair odds 3.68Bookmakers 27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| West Brom | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Team news
- George Campbell Out
- Noah Galves Out
- Kareem Tunde Doubtful
Predicted XI from West Brom News has Nat Phillips replacing Campbell at centre-back; Brayann Pereira expected at right-back.
- Tristan Crama Out
- Ryan Leonard Out
- Lukas Jensen Out
- Casper de Norre Out
Millwall are short at right-back; Alex Neil's expected 4-2-3-1 shape and XI not confirmed in recent reports.
Allowing for this news: West Brom 46%, draw 27%, Millwall 27% (xG 1.49 – 1.08). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: expressandstar.com, expressandstar.com, the72.co.uk, thehardtackle.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
West Brom and Millwall are rated almost level (1489 and 1496).
-
Home advantage Favours West Brom
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to West Brom's chance of winning and takes the same from Millwall's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Brom
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. West Brom score 1.1 a match against an average side (12th in Championship); Millwall concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours West Brom
West Brom DWDWW, gained 30 rating points; Millwall LWLDL, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (West Brom 47%, Millwall 27%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Millwall
West Brom won 0, drew 7 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
West BromMillwallWest Brom
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Millwall
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | West Brom | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 25%3.95 | 4%23.53 | 1%76.92 |
| Level | 18%5.66 | 17%5.88 | 10%9.75 |
| Millwall | 3%37.45 | 5%18.73 | 16%6.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0West Brom wins3Millwall wins- D West Brom vs Millwall 0-0
- L Millwall vs West Brom 3-0
- D Millwall vs West Brom 1-1
- D West Brom vs Millwall 0-0
- D Millwall vs West Brom 1-1
- D West Brom vs Millwall 0-0
- D West Brom vs Millwall 0-0
- L Millwall vs West Brom 2-1
- L Millwall vs West Brom 2-0
- D West Brom vs Millwall 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from West Brom's side.