Mansfield
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91
Milton Keynes Dons
23%
Fair odds 4.37
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mansfield | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mansfield
Mansfield are rated 64 points above Milton Keynes Dons (1369 to 1306), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mansfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mansfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Milton Keynes Dons's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mansfield
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Mansfield score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in League One); Milton Keynes Dons concede 1.9 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Mansfield DLWWD, gained 9 rating points; Milton Keynes Dons WWWLW, gained 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MansfieldMilton Keynes DonsMansfield
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Milton Keynes Dons
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/17
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mansfield | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | 33%3.02 | 5%19.80 | 2%58.48 |
| Level | 17%5.79 | 14%7.00 | 9%10.58 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 3%38.91 | 4%22.88 | 12%8.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Mansfield wins1Milton Keynes Dons wins- W Milton Keynes Dons vs Mansfield 1-4
- L Mansfield vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mansfield's side.