Chiba
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79Bookmakers 46%
Mito
21%
Fair odds 4.74Bookmakers 26%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Chiba: 56% here, 46% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chiba | Draw | Mito | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Chiba and Mito are rated almost level (1317 and 1309).
-
Home advantage Favours Chiba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Chiba's chance of winning and takes the same from Mito's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chiba
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Chiba score 0.8 a match against an average side (13th in J1 League); Mito concede 2.4 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Chiba
Chiba WDLDD, gained 8 rating points; Mito LLLLL, lost 49 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Mito
Bookmakers rate Mito higher than the model does: Chiba 46% against the model's 56%, Mito 26% against 21%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ChibaMitoChiba
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Mito
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chiba | Draw | Mito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiba | 31%3.19 | 3%30.49 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%4.93 | 13%7.97 | 6%15.95 |
| Mito | 5%21.41 | 6%15.85 | 14%6.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.