Brommapojkarna
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10Bookmakers 39%
Mjallby
26%
Fair odds 3.83Bookmakers 34%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Brommapojkarna: 48% here, 39% with bookmakers; Mjallby: 26% here, 34% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brommapojkarna | Draw | Mjallby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mjallby
Mjallby are rated 50 points above Brommapojkarna (1387 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brommapojkarna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brommapojkarna's chance of winning and takes the same from Mjallby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brommapojkarna
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Brommapojkarna score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Allsvenskan); Mjallby concede 1.6 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Brommapojkarna LDWLW, gained 12 rating points; Mjallby WDWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Brommapojkarna
Mjallby will have had 3 days' rest, Brommapojkarna 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Mjallby
Bookmakers rate Mjallby higher than the model does: Brommapojkarna 39% against the model's 48%, Mjallby 34% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Brommapojkarna won 2, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrommapojkarnaMjallbyBrommapojkarna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Mjallby
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brommapojkarna | Draw | Mjallby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna | 30%3.31 | 4%23.58 | 1%90.91 |
| Level | 15%6.52 | 16%6.38 | 8%12.33 |
| Mjallby | 3%39.53 | 5%18.25 | 17%5.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Brommapojkarna wins3Mjallby wins- L Mjallby vs Brommapojkarna 3-0
- L Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby 0-1
- L Mjallby vs Brommapojkarna 1-0
- D Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby 0-0
- D Mjallby vs Brommapojkarna 1-1
- W Mjallby vs Brommapojkarna 1-2
- W Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby 2-0
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brommapojkarna's side.