Kairat Almaty
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.07
Mjallby
25%
Fair odds 3.99
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kairat Almaty | Draw | Mjallby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mjallby
Mjallby are rated 24 points above Kairat Almaty (1387 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kairat Almaty
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kairat Almaty's chance of winning and takes the same from Mjallby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kairat Almaty
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Kairat Almaty score 0.9 a match against an average side; Mjallby concede 1.6 (8th best defence in Allsvenskan).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty DLDLL, gained 21 rating points; Mjallby WDWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Kairat AlmatyMjallbyKairat Almaty
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
25 conceded
09/30
10/21
11/05
11/26
12/09
01/20
01/28
10/15
10/22
11/05
Mjallby
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kairat Almaty | Draw | Mjallby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 31%3.26 | 4%25.45 | 1%— |
| Level | 16%6.41 | 16%6.20 | 7%13.51 |
| Mjallby | 3%39.53 | 6%17.86 | 17%5.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.