Pisa
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08
Modena
26%
Fair odds 3.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Pisa | Draw | Modena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Modena
Modena are rated 21 points above Pisa (1401 to 1380), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Pisa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Pisa's chance of winning and takes the same from Modena's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Pisa
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Pisa score 1.1 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie B); Modena concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Pisa LDDWW, gained 15 rating points; Modena DWWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Modena
Pisa won 1, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PisaModenaPisa
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Modena
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Pisa | Draw | Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 31%3.27 | 5%18.66 | 2%52.08 |
| Level | 16%6.36 | 15%6.69 | 11%9.42 |
| Modena | 2%43.67 | 4%22.57 | 14%7.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Pisa wins4Modena wins- L Pisa vs Modena 1-2
- L Modena vs Pisa 1-0
- D Pisa vs Modena 2-2
- L Modena vs Pisa 2-0
- L Modena vs Pisa 1-0
- W Pisa vs Modena 4-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Pisa's side.