Virtus Entella
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.73Bookmakers 32%
Modena
35%
Fair odds 2.84Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Virtus Entella | Draw | Modena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Modena
Modena are rated 81 points above Virtus Entella (1401 to 1320), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Virtus Entella
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Virtus Entella's chance of winning and takes the same from Modena's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Virtus Entella score 0.9 a match against an average side (13th in Serie B); Modena concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Modena
Virtus Entella LDLWD, lost 12 rating points; Modena DWWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Modena
Bookmakers rate Modena higher than the model does: Virtus Entella 32% against the model's 37%, Modena 39% against 35%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Virtus EntellaModenaVirtus Entella
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Modena
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 45%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Virtus Entella | Draw | Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 22%4.49 | 5%19.05 | 2%48.78 |
| Level | 13%7.62 | 17%5.87 | 14%7.40 |
| Modena | 2%55.56 | 5%21.14 | 20%4.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Virtus Entella wins1Modena wins- W Virtus Entella vs Modena 2-1
- L Modena vs Virtus Entella 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Virtus Entella's side.