Sandefjord
30%
Fair odds 3.39Bookmakers 25%
Molde
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13Bookmakers 53%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sandefjord | Draw | Molde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Best price on offer | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.78 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Molde
Molde are rated 87 points above Sandefjord (1438 to 1351), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sandefjord
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sandefjord's chance of winning and takes the same from Molde's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Molde
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.9. Sandefjord score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Eliteserien); Molde concede 1.7 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sandefjord WLLDW, barely moved; Molde LWWDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Molde
Bookmakers rate Molde higher than the model does: Sandefjord 25% against the model's 30%, Molde 53% against 47%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Sandefjord won 4, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SandefjordMoldeSandefjord
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Molde
9/10 over 2.5
31 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sandefjord | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 21%4.71 | 8%12.52 | 6%15.92 |
| Level | 8%13.07 | 12%8.53 | 20%5.07 |
| Molde | 1%98.04 | 3%34.36 | 21%4.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Sandefjord wins5Molde wins- L Molde vs Sandefjord 2-1
- W Molde vs Sandefjord 1-3
- W Sandefjord vs Molde 3-0
- W Molde vs Sandefjord 0-1
- W Sandefjord vs Molde 3-1
- D Sandefjord vs Molde 2-2
- L Molde vs Sandefjord 5-0
- L Molde vs Sandefjord 2-1
- L Sandefjord vs Molde 2-3
- L Molde vs Sandefjord 3-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sandefjord's side.