Queretaro
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.67
Monterrey
37%
Fair odds 2.72
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queretaro | Draw | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Monterrey
Monterrey are rated 42 points above Queretaro (1387 to 1345), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Queretaro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Queretaro's chance of winning and takes the same from Monterrey's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Queretaro score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in Liga MX); Monterrey concede 1.9 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Monterrey
Queretaro LLLLW, lost 39 rating points; Monterrey DLWWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Monterrey
Queretaro won 1, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QueretaroMonterreyQueretaro
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/12
09/21
09/27
10/11
10/21
10/26
10/31
Monterrey
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/22
08/31
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/11
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queretaro | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queretaro | 26%3.88 | 7%15.13 | 3%31.65 |
| Level | 11%9.42 | 14%6.98 | 14%7.06 |
| Monterrey | 1%67.11 | 4%25.13 | 20%5.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Queretaro wins6Monterrey wins- L Monterrey vs Queretaro 4-0
- L Queretaro vs Monterrey 0-1
- L Queretaro vs Monterrey 2-4
- L Monterrey vs Queretaro 2-1
- D Monterrey vs Queretaro 1-1
- D Queretaro vs Monterrey 0-0
- L Monterrey vs Queretaro 2-0
- L Queretaro vs Monterrey 0-3
- D Monterrey vs Queretaro 0-0
- W Queretaro vs Monterrey 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queretaro's side.