Toluca
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82Bookmakers 58%
Monterrey
23%
Fair odds 4.35Bookmakers 20%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Toluca | Draw | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Best price on offer | 1.62 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Toluca
Toluca are rated 81 points above Monterrey (1467 to 1387), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Toluca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Toluca's chance of winning and takes the same from Monterrey's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Toluca
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.3. Toluca score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in Liga MX); Monterrey concede 1.9 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Monterrey
Toluca DDDDL, lost 16 rating points; Monterrey DLWWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Toluca
Bookmakers rate Toluca higher than the model does: Toluca 58% against the model's 55%, Monterrey 20% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Toluca
Toluca won 6, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TolucaMonterreyToluca
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
17 conceded
08/31
09/13
09/16
09/26
10/10
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
Monterrey
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/22
08/31
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/11
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Toluca | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 30%3.29 | 4%26.46 | 1%75.19 |
| Level | 20%5.00 | 12%8.68 | 8%13.19 |
| Monterrey | 5%20.28 | 6%16.72 | 14%6.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Toluca wins4Monterrey wins- W Monterrey vs Toluca 0-1
- W Toluca vs Monterrey 3-2
- L Monterrey vs Toluca 1-0
- W Toluca vs Monterrey 6-2
- W Toluca vs Monterrey 2-1
- L Monterrey vs Toluca 3-2
- D Toluca vs Monterrey 1-1
- W Monterrey vs Toluca 1-2
- D Monterrey vs Toluca 0-0
- W Toluca vs Monterrey 1-0
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Toluca's side.