UNAM Pumas
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10
Monterrey
29%
Fair odds 3.49
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| UNAM Pumas | Draw | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 29% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours UNAM Pumas
UNAM Pumas are rated 22 points above Monterrey (1409 to 1387), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours UNAM Pumas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to UNAM Pumas's chance of winning and takes the same from Monterrey's.
-
Attack against defence Favours UNAM Pumas
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. UNAM Pumas score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Liga MX); Monterrey concede 1.9 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Monterrey
UNAM Pumas WDLWD, barely moved; Monterrey DLWWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Monterrey
UNAM Pumas won 2, drew 3 and lost 8 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UNAM PumasMonterreyUNAM Pumas
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/11
09/14
09/20
09/27
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/31
Monterrey
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/22
08/31
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/11
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | UNAM Pumas | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNAM Pumas | 28%3.51 | 5%20.24 | 2%48.08 |
| Level | 16%6.19 | 13%7.89 | 10%9.72 |
| Monterrey | 3%30.03 | 5%18.87 | 17%5.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2UNAM Pumas wins8Monterrey wins- W UNAM Pumas vs Monterrey 2-0
- D Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 1-1
- L Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 2-0
- L UNAM Pumas vs Monterrey 1-3
- L UNAM Pumas vs Monterrey 3-5
- L Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 1-0
- D Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 0-0
- L Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 3-0
- L UNAM Pumas vs Monterrey 0-1
- L Monterrey vs UNAM Pumas 4-1
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from UNAM Pumas's side.