Laval
30%
Fair odds 3.30
Montpellier
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Laval | Draw | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Montpellier
Montpellier are rated 140 points above Laval (1437 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Laval
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Laval's chance of winning and takes the same from Montpellier's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Montpellier
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Laval score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in Ligue 2); Montpellier concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Montpellier
Laval WLDLD, lost 5 rating points; Montpellier WWWWD, gained 47 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LavalMontpellierLaval
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Montpellier
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
5 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/19
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Laval | Draw | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laval | 19%5.34 | 6%17.30 | 3%34.01 |
| Level | 11%9.42 | 16%6.29 | 17%5.96 |
| Montpellier | 1%69.44 | 4%23.53 | 24%4.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Laval wins2Montpellier wins- L Montpellier vs Laval 2-0
- L Laval vs Montpellier 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Laval's side.