Sp Lisbon
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34Bookmakers 80%
Moreirense
9%
Fair odds 11.56Bookmakers 7%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Lisbon | Draw | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 17% | 9% |
| Elo model | 75% | 19% | 7% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Best price on offer | 1.18 | 8.00 | 17.50 |
Team news
- Zeno Debast Out
- Nuno Santos Out
Paulo Fonseca makes his first match in charge; Rodrigo Zalazar has returned from a knee problem and is available. Reports expect a 4-2-3-1. Interim boss Fernandes had used Ioannidis and Suárez together, so the XI may change.
- Francisco Domingues Out
- Kiko Bondoso Out
- Alexandre Duville-Parsemain Out
- João Veloso Out
- Manuel Mendonça Doubtful
Álvaro Martínez is expected to replace Domingues at left-back, and Landerson is expected to keep Bondoso's spot. Moreirense's previous match was a 2-1 win over Estrela Amadora.
Allowing for this news: Sp Lisbon 76%, draw 16%, Moreirense 8% (xG 2.44 – 0.68). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, flashscore.pt, ojogo.pt, abola.pt
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon are rated 224 points above Moreirense (1696 to 1473), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Sp Lisbon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Sp Lisbon's chance of winning and takes the same from Moreirense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Lisbon
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.7. Sp Lisbon score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Primeira Liga); Moreirense concede 1.4 (12th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Moreirense
Sp Lisbon WWLLW, lost 9 rating points; Moreirense WWLDW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Moreirense
Sp Lisbon will have had 4 days' rest, Moreirense 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Sp Lisbon
Bookmakers rate Sp Lisbon higher than the model does: Sp Lisbon 80% against the model's 75%, Moreirense 7% against 9%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon won 7, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sp LisbonMoreirenseSp Lisbon
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Moreirense
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/09
09/14
10/09
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 66%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Lisbon | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 49%2.05 | 3%36.36 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.37 | 10%10.16 | 4%27.93 |
| Moreirense | 3%29.59 | 3%30.30 | 5%20.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Sp Lisbon wins1Moreirense wins- W Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon 0-3
- W Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense 3-0
- W Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense 3-1
- L Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon 2-1
- W Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon 0-2
- W Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense 3-0
- W Moreirense vs Sp Lisbon 0-2
- W Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sp Lisbon's side.