Dunfermline
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53
Morton
13%
Fair odds 7.84
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dunfermline | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dunfermline
Dunfermline are rated 110 points above Morton (1386 to 1276), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dunfermline
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Dunfermline's chance of winning and takes the same from Morton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dunfermline
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.7. Dunfermline score 0.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Scottish Championship); Morton concede 2.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Dunfermline WWWDD, gained 22 rating points; Morton WWWLL, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Dunfermline won 7, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DunfermlineMortonDunfermline
1/10 over 2.5
14 scored
4 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Morton
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dunfermline | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 36%2.79 | 2%42.37 | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.89 | 13%7.41 | 4%23.42 |
| Morton | 4%23.15 | 5%19.34 | 8%11.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Dunfermline wins6Morton wins- W Morton vs Dunfermline 0-1
- W Dunfermline vs Morton 3-1
- L Morton vs Dunfermline 2-0
- W Dunfermline vs Morton 1-0
- D Morton vs Dunfermline 0-0
- L Morton vs Dunfermline 2-0
- W Dunfermline vs Morton 2-1
- L Morton vs Dunfermline 2-0
- D Dunfermline vs Morton 0-0
- W Morton vs Dunfermline 0-1
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dunfermline's side.