Livingston
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62
Morton
16%
Fair odds 6.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Livingston | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Livingston
Livingston are rated 112 points above Morton (1388 to 1276), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Livingston
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Livingston's chance of winning and takes the same from Morton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Livingston
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Livingston score 0.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Scottish Championship); Morton concede 2.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Morton
Livingston WWDLL, barely moved; Morton WWWLL, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Livingston
Livingston won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LivingstonMortonLivingston
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Morton
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Livingston | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 38%2.61 | 4%26.53 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 14%7.36 | 6%15.92 |
| Morton | 3%32.47 | 4%23.15 | 9%11.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Livingston wins0Morton wins- W Morton vs Livingston 1-4
- W Morton vs Livingston 1-2
- W Livingston vs Morton 3-2
- D Morton vs Livingston 0-0
- D Livingston vs Morton 1-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Livingston's side.