Dundee United
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08Bookmakers 46%
Motherwell
27%
Fair odds 3.68Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dundee United | Draw | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
Team news
- Will Ferry Out
- Emmanuel Agyei Out
- Mehdi Merghem Out
- Neil Farrugia Out
Sports Mole expects Daniel Bennie to come in for Farrugia; manager Jim Goodwin was recently hospitalised but has since returned to the dugout.
- Paul McGinn Doubtful
- Dylan Williams Doubtful
Conflicting reports: Sports Mole (latest preview) lists McGinn and Williams as ongoing injury concerns, while Motherwell's club site said McGinn returned to the bench; Priestman and Hendry are back in the squad.
Allowing for this news: Dundee United 45%, draw 25%, Motherwell 29% (xG 1.63 – 1.27). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, motherwellfc.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Dundee United and Motherwell are rated almost level (1474 and 1477).
-
Home advantage Favours Dundee United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dundee United's chance of winning and takes the same from Motherwell's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dundee United
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Dundee United score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Scottish Premiership); Motherwell concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee United
Dundee United DWDWW, gained 36 rating points; Motherwell WDLLL, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Dundee United 46%, Motherwell 29%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Motherwell
Dundee United won 5, drew 2 and lost 8 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Dundee UnitedMotherwellDundee United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Motherwell
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dundee United | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United | 27%3.66 | 4%23.75 | 1%68.97 |
| Level | 18%5.69 | 14%7.26 | 9%10.93 |
| Motherwell | 4%27.78 | 6%17.04 | 17%5.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Dundee United wins8Motherwell wins- L Motherwell vs Dundee United 3-0
- L Motherwell vs Dundee United 2-0
- D Dundee United vs Motherwell 0-0
- L Motherwell vs Dundee United 2-0
- W Dundee United vs Motherwell 1-0
- L Motherwell vs Dundee United 4-3
- L Dundee United vs Motherwell 1-2
- L Motherwell vs Dundee United 3-2
- W Motherwell vs Dundee United 1-2
- L Dundee United vs Motherwell 0-1
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dundee United's side.