Ferencvaros
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.43
NK Celje
13%
Fair odds 7.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ferencvaros | Draw | NK Celje | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ferencvaros
Ferencvaros are rated 105 points above NK Celje (1546 to 1440), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ferencvaros
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Ferencvaros's chance of winning and takes the same from NK Celje's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ferencvaros
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.0. Ferencvaros score 1.5 a match against an average side; NK Celje concede 1.6.
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ferencvaros
Ferencvaros WWWWL, gained 36 rating points; NK Celje WDLLW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FerencvarosNK CeljeFerencvaros
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
01/22
01/29
03/12
03/18
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
NK Celje
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
03/12
03/19
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ferencvaros | Draw | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvaros | 34%2.98 | 2%62.50 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.59 | 8%11.99 | 3%33.78 |
| NK Celje | 9%10.98 | 7%14.97 | 10%10.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.