Maritimo
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28
Nacional
30%
Fair odds 3.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Maritimo | Draw | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nacional
Nacional are rated 27 points above Maritimo (1422 to 1395), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Maritimo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Maritimo's chance of winning and takes the same from Nacional's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Maritimo
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Maritimo score 1.0 a match against an average side (15th in Primeira Liga); Nacional concede 1.5 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Maritimo LLLDL, lost 28 rating points; Nacional LWLLL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MaritimoNacionalMaritimo
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/10
11/01
Nacional
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/10
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Maritimo | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 26%3.86 | 5%20.08 | 2%51.28 |
| Level | 16%6.35 | 15%6.73 | 11%8.76 |
| Nacional | 3%37.45 | 5%19.53 | 17%5.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.