Verdy
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Nagoya Grampus
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Verdy | Draw | Nagoya Grampus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 29% | 37% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus are rated 28 points above Verdy (1319 to 1291), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Verdy
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Verdy's chance of winning and takes the same from Nagoya Grampus's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Verdy score 0.6 a match against an average side (22nd in J1 League); Nagoya Grampus concede 1.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nagoya Grampus
Verdy WWDLL, barely moved; Nagoya Grampus LDDWW, gained 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Verdy won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VerdyNagoya GrampusVerdy
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Nagoya Grampus
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Verdy | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdy | 26%3.77 | 7%14.77 | 2%44.25 |
| Level | 7%14.43 | 19%5.34 | 13%7.42 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1%— | 3%34.36 | 22%4.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Verdy wins1Nagoya Grampus wins- D Nagoya Grampus vs Verdy 0-0
- W Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus 2-1
- L Nagoya Grampus vs Verdy 1-0
- W Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Verdy's side.