Pau FC
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52Bookmakers 32%
Nantes
34%
Fair odds 2.98Bookmakers 40%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Pau FC: 40% here, 32% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Pau FC | Draw | Nantes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nantes
Nantes are rated 26 points above Pau FC (1381 to 1355), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Pau FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Pau FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Nantes's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Pau FC score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in Ligue 2); Nantes concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pau FC
Pau FC WWWWW, gained 45 rating points; Nantes DLLDW, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Nantes
Bookmakers rate Nantes higher than the model does: Pau FC 32% against the model's 40%, Nantes 40% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Pau FCNantesPau FC
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
10 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Nantes
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Pau FC | Draw | Nantes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pau FC | 21%4.74 | 4%24.39 | 1%67.11 |
| Level | 16%6.25 | 15%6.47 | 11%9.03 |
| Nantes | 3%32.15 | 6%16.18 | 21%4.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.