Man City
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.37
Napoli
11%
Fair odds 9.09
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Man City | Draw | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Man City
Man City are rated 136 points above Napoli (1710 to 1574), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Man City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Man City's chance of winning and takes the same from Napoli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Man City
Expected goals 2.7 to 1.0. Man City score 2.2 a match against an average side (1st in Premier League); Napoli concede 1.1 (7th best defence in Serie A).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Man City WLLWW, barely moved; Napoli LLWDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Man CityNapoliMan City
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Napoli
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/28
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Man City | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 36%2.82 | 2%51.55 | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.35 | 8%12.48 | 4%27.40 |
| Napoli | 8%12.08 | 5%19.34 | 7%14.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Man City wins0Napoli wins- W Man City vs Napoli 2-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Man City's side.