FC Cincinnati
22%
Fair odds 4.55Bookmakers 37%
Nashville SC
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78Bookmakers 38%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. FC Cincinnati: 22% here, 37% with bookmakers; Nashville SC: 56% here, 38% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.55 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nashville SC
Nashville SC are rated 116 points above FC Cincinnati (1483 to 1366), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Cincinnati
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Cincinnati's chance of winning and takes the same from Nashville SC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nashville SC
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.1. FC Cincinnati score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in MLS); Nashville SC concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FC Cincinnati WDWWL, gained 12 rating points; Nashville SC WDWDW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours FC Cincinnati
Bookmakers rate FC Cincinnati higher than the model does: FC Cincinnati 37% against the model's 22%, Nashville SC 38% against 56%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
FC Cincinnati won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC CincinnatiNashville SCFC Cincinnati
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
Nashville SC
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
8 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/24
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 17%5.72 | 9%11.12 | 9%11.04 |
| Level | 4%22.47 | 10%9.68 | 24%4.11 |
| Nashville SC | 0%— | 2%55.25 | 23%4.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4FC Cincinnati wins4Nashville SC wins- L Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 4-0
- W FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 2-1
- W Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 1-2
- D Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 2-2
- L FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 0-2
- W FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 3-1
- W Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 0-1
- D FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 1-1
- L FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 3-6
- L Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 3-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Cincinnati's side.