Queretaro
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Necaxa
21%
Fair odds 4.68
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queretaro | Draw | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Queretaro
Queretaro are rated 57 points above Necaxa (1345 to 1289), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Queretaro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Queretaro's chance of winning and takes the same from Necaxa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Queretaro
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Queretaro score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in Liga MX); Necaxa concede 2.3 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Necaxa
Queretaro LLLLW, lost 39 rating points; Necaxa LDLLD, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Queretaro won 3, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QueretaroNecaxaQueretaro
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/12
09/21
09/27
10/11
10/21
10/26
10/31
Necaxa
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
09/28
10/12
10/17
10/21
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queretaro | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queretaro | 32%3.17 | 3%31.15 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.17 | 14%7.28 | 6%16.58 |
| Necaxa | 4%24.75 | 6%15.85 | 15%6.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Queretaro wins4Necaxa wins- W Queretaro vs Necaxa 3-1
- L Necaxa vs Queretaro 3-1
- L Necaxa vs Queretaro 2-0
- D Queretaro vs Necaxa 0-0
- D Necaxa vs Queretaro 1-1
- D Queretaro vs Necaxa 1-1
- W Necaxa vs Queretaro 0-1
- D Necaxa vs Queretaro 1-1
- L Queretaro vs Necaxa 1-2
- L Necaxa vs Queretaro 1-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queretaro's side.