Orlando City
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.25Bookmakers 47%
New England Revolution
33%
Fair odds 3.00Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Orlando City | Draw | New England Revolution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 47% | 23% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 1.98 | 4.33 | 3.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Orlando City and New England Revolution are rated almost level (1354 and 1357).
-
Home advantage Favours Orlando City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Orlando City's chance of winning and takes the same from New England Revolution's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Orlando City
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.7. Orlando City score 1.1 a match against an average side (8th in MLS); New England Revolution concede 1.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours New England Revolution
Orlando City LDDWD, barely moved; New England Revolution LWWWW, gained 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Orlando City
Bookmakers rate Orlando City higher than the model does: Orlando City 47% against the model's 45%, New England Revolution 29% against 33%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Orlando City won 4, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Orlando CityNew England RevolutionOrlando City
10/10 over 2.5
24 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
New England Revolution
9/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 3-2
- 2-0
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Orlando City | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City | 26%3.80 | 6%17.73 | 4%28.17 |
| Level | 15%6.61 | 11%9.11 | 13%7.70 |
| New England Revolution | 3%29.07 | 5%21.10 | 17%5.82 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Orlando City wins4New England Revolution wins- L New England Revolution vs Orlando City 4-2
- W New England Revolution vs Orlando City 1-2
- D Orlando City vs New England Revolution 3-3
- W Orlando City vs New England Revolution 3-0
- W New England Revolution vs Orlando City 1-3
- W Orlando City vs New England Revolution 3-2
- L New England Revolution vs Orlando City 3-1
- L Orlando City vs New England Revolution 0-3
- D New England Revolution vs Orlando City 1-1
- D Orlando City vs New England Revolution 2-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Orlando City's side.