DC United
27%
Fair odds 3.73Bookmakers 32%
New York City
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13Bookmakers 42%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| DC United | Draw | New York City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Best price on offer | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours New York City
New York City are rated 116 points above DC United (1355 to 1238), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours DC United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to DC United's chance of winning and takes the same from New York City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours New York City
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. DC United score 0.6 a match against an average side (29th in MLS); New York City concede 1.9 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours New York City
DC United LLLLL, lost 32 rating points; New York City DWDDL, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours DC United
Bookmakers rate DC United higher than the model does: DC United 32% against the model's 27%, New York City 42% against 47%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
DC United won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DC UnitedNew York CityDC United
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
23 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
New York City
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
14 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/27
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | DC United | Draw | New York City |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 22%4.59 | 9%11.60 | 5%19.57 |
| Level | 5%19.72 | 15%6.88 | 20%5.13 |
| New York City | 0%— | 2%46.73 | 23%4.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4DC United wins4New York City wins- W New York City vs DC United 0-2
- W New York City vs DC United 1-2
- D DC United vs New York City 0-0
- D DC United vs New York City 1-1
- L New York City vs DC United 2-0
- W DC United vs New York City 2-0
- L New York City vs DC United 3-2
- W New York City vs DC United 1-2
- L DC United vs New York City 0-2
- L New York City vs DC United 6-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from DC United's side.