Instituto
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78Bookmakers 49%
Newells Old Boys
18%
Fair odds 5.65Bookmakers 21%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Instituto | Draw | Newells Old Boys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.95 | 3.25 | 5.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Instituto
Instituto are rated 64 points above Newells Old Boys (1404 to 1340), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Instituto
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Instituto's chance of winning and takes the same from Newells Old Boys's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Instituto
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.8. Instituto score 0.9 a match against an average side (4th in Liga Profesional); Newells Old Boys concede 1.5 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Instituto
Instituto DWWDW, gained 31 rating points; Newells Old Boys DDWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Newells Old Boys
Bookmakers rate Newells Old Boys higher than the model does: Instituto 49% against the model's 56%, Newells Old Boys 21% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Instituto
Instituto won 2, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InstitutoNewells Old BoysInstituto
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/22
09/01
09/08
09/15
09/20
10/02
10/09
10/16
10/27
11/01
Newells Old Boys
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/03
10/12
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Instituto | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Instituto | 34%2.96 | 2%60.61 | 0%— |
| Level | 20%5.11 | 17%5.99 | 3%34.97 |
| Newells Old Boys | 3%28.74 | 7%14.66 | 15%6.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Instituto wins0Newells Old Boys wins- D Newells Old Boys vs Instituto 1-1
- W Newells Old Boys vs Instituto 0-2
- W Instituto vs Newells Old Boys 3-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Instituto's side.