Crewe
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.51
Newport County
32%
Fair odds 3.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crewe | Draw | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Crewe
Crewe are rated 55 points above Newport County (1219 to 1164), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crewe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crewe's chance of winning and takes the same from Newport County's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Crewe
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Crewe score 0.6 a match against an average side (19th in League Two); Newport County concede 2.1 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Newport County
Crewe DLLWW, lost 7 rating points; Newport County WLDDW, gained 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Newport County
Crewe won 1, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CreweNewport CountyCrewe
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Newport County
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crewe | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 24%4.12 | 5%19.08 | 2%51.28 |
| Level | 14%7.01 | 17%5.88 | 13%7.86 |
| Newport County | 2%51.81 | 5%21.46 | 18%5.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Crewe wins4Newport County wins- L Newport County vs Crewe 2-0
- D Crewe vs Newport County 2-2
- L Crewe vs Newport County 0-3
- L Newport County vs Crewe 2-1
- D Newport County vs Crewe 1-1
- W Crewe vs Newport County 4-2
- D Newport County vs Crewe 2-2
- L Crewe vs Newport County 1-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crewe's side.