Angers
31%
Fair odds 3.19Bookmakers 28%
Nice
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.39Bookmakers 47%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Angers | Draw | Nice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| Best price on offer | 3.60 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nice
Nice are rated 62 points above Angers (1479 to 1417), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Angers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Angers's chance of winning and takes the same from Nice's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nice
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Angers score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in Ligue 1); Nice concede 1.4 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nice
Angers LDLLW, lost 19 rating points; Nice WWLWW, gained 38 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Nice
Bookmakers rate Nice higher than the model does: Angers 28% against the model's 31%, Nice 47% against 42%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Nice
Angers won 2, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AngersNiceAngers
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Nice
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
12 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Angers | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 19%5.33 | 5%19.80 | 2%44.44 |
| Level | 11%8.84 | 16%6.41 | 14%7.03 |
| Nice | 2%54.35 | 5%19.69 | 26%3.86 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Angers wins5Nice wins- L Angers vs Nice 0-2
- W Nice vs Angers 0-1
- L Nice vs Angers 2-1
- L Angers vs Nice 1-4
- D Angers vs Nice 1-1
- W Nice vs Angers 0-1
- L Nice vs Angers 1-0
- L Angers vs Nice 1-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Angers's side.