Utrecht
36%
Fair odds 2.78Bookmakers 39%
Nijmegen
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46Bookmakers 36%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Utrecht | Draw | Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.65 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nijmegen
Nijmegen are rated 29 points above Utrecht (1521 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Utrecht
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Utrecht's chance of winning and takes the same from Nijmegen's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.8. Utrecht score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Eredivisie); Nijmegen concede 1.4 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nijmegen
Utrecht LDWWL, lost 8 rating points; Nijmegen WLDWD, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Utrecht
Nijmegen will have had 3 days' rest, Utrecht 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Utrecht
Bookmakers rate Utrecht higher than the model does: Utrecht 39% against the model's 36%, Nijmegen 36% against 41%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Utrecht
Utrecht won 6, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UtrechtNijmegenUtrecht
9/10 over 2.5
18 scored
29 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Nijmegen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Utrecht | Draw | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 23%4.37 | 6%16.05 | 4%25.13 |
| Level | 11%8.84 | 12%8.50 | 15%6.66 |
| Nijmegen | 2%44.44 | 4%22.32 | 22%4.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Utrecht wins2Nijmegen wins- W Nijmegen vs Utrecht 1-3
- W Utrecht vs Nijmegen 1-0
- L Utrecht vs Nijmegen 0-1
- W Nijmegen vs Utrecht 1-2
- W Utrecht vs Nijmegen 1-0
- L Nijmegen vs Utrecht 3-0
- D Nijmegen vs Utrecht 2-2
- D Utrecht vs Nijmegen 0-0
- W Utrecht vs Nijmegen 1-0
- W Nijmegen vs Utrecht 0-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Utrecht's side.