Randers FC
25%
Fair odds 3.97Bookmakers 22%
Nordsjaelland
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.02Bookmakers 56%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Randers FC | Draw | Nordsjaelland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Best price on offer | 4.45 | 4.30 | 1.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nordsjaelland
Nordsjaelland are rated 114 points above Randers FC (1412 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Randers FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Randers FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Nordsjaelland's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nordsjaelland
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.7. Randers FC score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in Danish Superliga); Nordsjaelland concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nordsjaelland
Randers FC LLDLL, lost 36 rating points; Nordsjaelland LLDDD, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Randers FC
Nordsjaelland will have had 3 days' rest, Randers FC 9. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Nordsjaelland
Bookmakers rate Nordsjaelland higher than the model does: Randers FC 22% against the model's 25%, Nordsjaelland 56% against 49%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Nordsjaelland
Randers FC won 4, drew 4 and lost 7 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Randers FCNordsjaellandRanders FC
7/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/23
10/30
Nordsjaelland
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Randers FC | Draw | Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC | 21%4.85 | 9%11.21 | 6%16.75 |
| Level | 5%21.65 | 14%7.36 | 21%4.78 |
| Nordsjaelland | 0%— | 2%51.28 | 23%4.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Randers FC wins7Nordsjaelland wins- L Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 1-0
- L Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 1-0
- W Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland 3-0
- W Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland 3-2
- L Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 5-2
- W Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland 4-0
- D Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 1-1
- D Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 1-1
- L Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland 0-5
- L Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC 3-1
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from Randers FC's side.