Port Vale
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23
Northampton
27%
Fair odds 3.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Port Vale | Draw | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Port Vale
Port Vale are rated 40 points above Northampton (1248 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Port Vale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Port Vale's chance of winning and takes the same from Northampton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Port Vale
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.0. Port Vale score 0.7 a match against an average side (7th in League Two); Northampton concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Port Vale WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Northampton LDWLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Port Vale won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Port ValeNorthamptonPort Vale
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Northampton
0/10 over 2.5
8 scored
8 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Port Vale | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 28%3.59 | 5%20.24 | 1%68.03 |
| Level | 16%6.37 | 18%5.54 | 11%9.24 |
| Northampton | 2%53.19 | 4%22.47 | 15%6.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Port Vale wins2Northampton wins- W Northampton vs Port Vale 0-1
- D Port Vale vs Northampton 0-0
- L Northampton vs Port Vale 2-0
- W Port Vale vs Northampton 1-0
- D Port Vale vs Northampton 0-0
- L Northampton vs Port Vale 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Port Vale's side.